Fire OblationTier 1
at 2026/05/02 RiRiCO 店冠賽
decks
3
(15.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
13-2-3
overall winrate
80.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.7%
avg ELO +4.6 per match
expected value
60.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1453
· median 1416
· range 1407–1535
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1095
Q1 1271
Q3 1411
1694
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -3.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 64.2% | +10.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 10.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.7% | +0.6 |
| Water Neos | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 53.8% | +2.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.9% | +11.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.7% | +3.5 |
| Slimes | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.1% | +6.8 |
